DSC 106 — CMIP6 Climate Projections

What if your dream vacation
destination didn’t exist anymore?

Rising temperatures, stronger storms, sea level rise, and shrinking snowpack are already changing many of the places people travel to every year.

Take our quiz to discover your perfect getaway — and see how climate change could transform it by the end of the century.

Start the quiz

What's your ideal outdoor temperature?

Think about your favorite vacation days, not the hottest days

60
Cool
60–70°F
Crisp mountain air
74
Mild
70–78°F
Perfect comfort
82
Warm
78–88°F
Beach weather
92
Hot
88°F+
Desert sunshine
Step 1 of 5

Which landscape calls to you?

Choose the setting that defines your ideal trip

~
Ocean & Coast
Beaches, waves, and saltwater air
^
Mountains
Peaks, altitude, and alpine scenery
Y
Forest
Trails, canopy, and wildlife
O
Lake Country
Inland water, fishing, and calm
*
Desert
Open skies, red rock, and vast space
#
City & Culture
Restaurants, museums, and energy
Step 2 of 5

What do you actually do on vacation?

Choose up to 3 activities

Swimming
Ocean or pools
Skiing
Snow sports
Hiking
Trails and parks
Camping
Outdoors overnight
Wildlife
Nature viewing
Food & Dining
Local cuisine
Beach & Sun
Relax and tan
Sightseeing
Landmarks and views
Step 3 of 5 — 0/3 selected

What does your ideal vacation weather look like?

Think beyond temperature — precipitation and sky matter too

S
Hot & Sunny
Clear blue skies, intense warmth
PC
Mild & Clear
Partly cloudy, comfortable
C
Cool & Overcast
Dramatic skies, crisp air
SN
Winter Snow
Fresh powder, cozy atmosphere
R
Tropical Showers
Brief rain, lush greenery
?
No Preference
Adapt to the destination
Step 4 of 5

What's your travel personality?

How do you actually spend your vacation days?

Z
Pure Relaxation
Slow mornings, long afternoons, no agenda
!
Outdoor Adventure
Push limits, seek thrills, explore terrain
A
Active & Sporty
Exercise, movement, sweat, accomplish
V
Scenic & Peaceful
Views, stillness, photography, nature
C
Cultural Exploration
History, food, locals, stories
+
Mix of Everything
Some of each, day by day
Step 5 of 5 — Final step

Analyzing your vacation preferences…

Beach Escape
0%
Mountain Adventure
0%
Outdoor Explorer
0%
Mild Getaway
0%

Beach Escape

Your ideal trip centers on warm coastal temperatures, sunshine, and comfortable ocean water. You travel for the feeling of warmth on your face and sand between your toes.

Your Vacation Profile Today
Climate Suitability
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Your ideal destinations today

The best places for your vacation, today

The map shows current climate suitability for your vacation type across all 50 states. Greener states offer conditions closest to what your ideal trip needs right now.

These regions have built entire vacation economies on the reliability of their climate — conditions that have held for generations. Right now, the dream is real and the map is in your favor.

Enjoy it. Because the map is about to change.

Mid-century projection

By 2050, the conditions that define your vacation begin to shift

CMIP6 climate projections show that by mid-century, the climate behind your vacation will have measurably changed. Some shifts are subtle. Others are not. The map is no longer what it was.

2050 is not a distant future — it is within the lifetime of anyone alive today. The resorts, coastlines, and parks on this map are already feeling the early pressure of these projections.

The direction is clear. The only question is how far it goes.

End of century

By 2100, the map has fundamentally changed

End-of-century projections show what continued warming means for your vacation climate. For some trip types, the experience worsens in place. For others, the ideal conditions relocate entirely. For some, they disappear.

The states that currently define your favorite vacation may no longer offer what they do today. Some states you’d never consider are becoming newly viable — the geography of American leisure is being redrawn.

Scroll to find out what happened to your vacation — and why.

The Climate Mechanism

What's driving the change?

Here are the specific climate variables that are shifting conditions for your vacation type — and by how much, from today to 2100.

The Verdict

Your vacation is changing.

The climate that makes your vacation possible is shifting. The destinations you love are not disappearing overnight — but they are changing, and the change is directional.

Explore the Data

Compare vacation climate suitability across all states, time periods, and emissions scenarios. Click any state on the map for details.

Vacation Type
Year
Scenario
Select a state to compare
Click any state on the map
Vacation Climate Suitability Over Time — Key US Regions

The one thing to take away

Climate change isn’t just an environmental story.
It’s a personal one.

Every American vacation is really a climate preference in disguise. You book Florida in January because you want warmth. You drive to Vermont in February because you need snow. You hike Colorado in July because you need mild air. That relationship between people and place is built entirely on climate — and climate is changing.

The most important insight from this project is not that temperatures are rising. It is that the experiences people travel to find — warmth without danger, reliable snow, cool summer air — are shifting in ways that will force Americans to either adapt where they travel or accept a diminished version of the trip they once loved.

Why this visualization succeeds at showing it: Unlike a static chart of rising temperatures, this project makes climate change personal. You built your vacation first. The map showed you where it exists today. Then you watched it change — specifically for your trip, your preferences, your states. The verdict (WORSENING, RELOCATING, or DISAPPEARING) is not a global average. It is yours. That personalization is what transforms an abstract projection into a decision you might actually face.

Data: CMIP6 climate model projections (BCC-CSM2-MR) · Suitability methodology: temperature comfort windows, heat stress thresholds, snowpack reliability, and precipitation patterns · Scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate), SSP5-8.5 (high) · All scores 0–1 normalized · This visualization does not predict tourism revenue or travel behavior · Built for DSC 106, UC San Diego
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Today-
2050-
2100-
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Click for full details